VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor
Colman Domingo in Rustin David Lee/Netflix 2022 Weekly Commentary (Updated July 27, 2023): The Cannes Film Festival brought many notable films that could vie for awards consideration, including Apples Killers of the Flower Moon starring Leonardo DiCaprio. An Oscar-winner for The Revenant (2015), his turn as a husband with ulterior motives is one of his finest. It would be hard to imagine a lineup that wouldnt include him.
From the first half of 2023, smaller films have names worth considering, such as Kelvin Harrison Jr from Searchlights Chevalier. The summer has now dropped Cillian Murphy into the mix as the titular Oppenheimer from Christopher Nolan. Despite Nolans vast respect in the industry and pop culture, Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) is the only actor nominated and won an Academy Award for one of the auteurs movies. Could Murphy become the second (or third/fourth with co-stars Robert Downey Jr and Emily Blunt contending in supporting categories)?
While we are expecting a supporting push for Ryan Gosling, there are some that see his brilliant turn as Ken in Greta Gerwigs Barbie, as a leading role. Well list him in both places for now.
Amid the ongoing Hollywood strikes, the show must go on, at least in terms of fall festivals like Venice, Telluride and Toronto.
At Venice, well pay close attention to when Bradley Coopers sophomore directorial effort Maestro bows at the Lido. The biopic of Leonard Bernstein has the eight-time Oscar nominee playing the famed composer in a film he also wrote and produced for Netflix. The streamer hopes Coopers movie is going to be a significant player and become the third person to direct themselves to acting wins after Laurence Olivier (Hamlet) and Roberto Benigni (Life is Beautiful).
As can be expected, Netflix is brimming with multiple candidates that could pop up, such as Colman Domingo in George C. Wolfes Rustin, which will debut at TIFF.
Another festival drop having strong early word is Alexander Paynes The Holdovers, with Paul Giamatti looking to avenge his criminal Sideways snub 20 years ago, another joint from Payne. Coincidentally, Jamie Foxx, who won that year for Ray, could be in the discussion again with Maggie Betts The Burial.
Plenty more movies can move in or shift out of the calendar year. Its still early, but the chess pieces are being implemented.
Read:VarietysAwards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:Paul Giamatti The Holdovers (Focus Features)Leonardo DiCaprio Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)Cillian Murphy Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)Bradley Cooper Maestro (Netflix)Colman Domingo Rustin (Netflix) Next in LineKingsley Ben-Adir Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)Adam Driver Ferrari (Neon)Jeffrey Wright American Fiction (MGM)David Strathairn A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics)Paul Dano Dumb Money (Sony Pictures) Other Top-Tier PossibilitiesBarry Keoghan Saltburn (Amazon Studios)Anthony Hopkins Freuds Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics) **Matt Damon Air (Amazon Studios)Teo Yoo Past Lives (A24)Christian Friedel The Zone of Interest (A24)Michael Fassbender The Killer (Netflix)Jamie Foxx The Burial (Amazon Studios)Joaquin Phoenix Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)Jesse Garcia Flamin Hot (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)Jay Baruchel BlackBerry (IFC Films) Also In ContentionZac Efron The Iron Claw (A24)Lakeith Stanfield The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures) **Jaime Vadell El Conde (Netflix)Paul Mescal Foe (Amazon Studios)Michael Fassbender Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)Alden Ehrenreich Fair Play (Netflix)Peter Sarsgaard Memory (No U.S. Distribution)Justin H. Min Shortcomings (Sony Pictures Classics)Timothe Chalamet Wonka (Warner Bros.)Gael Garca Bernal Cassandro (Amazon Studios) All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**Kenneth Branagh A Haunting in Venice (20th Century Studios)Tom Hardy The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)Joaquin Phoenix Beau is Afraid (A24)Zac Efron The Iron Claw (A24) **Tee Yoo Past Lives (A24)Jacob Elordi Priscilla (A24) **Jesse Eisenberg When You Finish Saving the World (A24)Christian Friedel The Zone of Interest (A24)Matt Damon Air (Amazon Studios)Jamie Foxx The Burial (Amazon Studios)Gael Garca Bernal Cassandro (Amazon Studios)Paul Mescal Foe (Amazon Studios)Barry Keoghan Saltburn (Amazon Studios)Riz Ahmed Fingernails (Apple Original Films)Orn Kinlan Flora and Son (Apple Original Films) **Joseph Gordon-Levitt Flora and Son (Apple Original Films) **Leonardo DiCaprio Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)Joaquin Phoenix Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)Liev Schreiber Across the River and Into the Trees (Bleecker Street)Paul Giamatti The Holdovers (Focus Features)Jay Baruchel BlackBerry (IFC Films)Jesse Garcia Flamin Hot (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)Keanu Reeves John Wick Chapter 4 (Lionsgate)Joel Edgerton Master Gardener (Magnolia Pictures)Paul Rudd Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania (Marvel Studios)Bradley Cooper Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Marvel Studios) **Chris Pratt Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Marvel Studios) **Callum Turner The Boys in the Boat (MGM)Michael B. Jordan Creed III (MGM)Jeffrey Wright American Fiction (MGM)Jaime Vadell El Conde (Netflix)Alden Ehrenreich Fair Play (Netflix)Josh OConnor La Chimera (Neon)Michael Fassbender The Killer (Netflix)Bradley Cooper Maestro (Netflix)Dev Patel The Monkey King (Netflix)Colman Domingo Rustin (Netflix)Robert DeNiro Ezra (No U.S. Distribution)Peter Sarsgaard Memory (No U.S Distribution)Kingsley Ben-Adir Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)Tom Cruise Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount Pictures)Kelvin Harrison Jr. Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)Jonathan Majors Magazine Dreams (Searchlight Pictures) **Michael Fassbender Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) **Lakeith Stanfield The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)Paul Dano Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)Denzel Washington The Equalizer 3 (Sony Pictures)Aaron Taylor-Johnson Kraven the Hunter (Sony Pictures)Shameik Moore Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)Anthony Hopkins Freuds Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)David Strathairn A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics)Adam Driver Ferrari (Neon)Cillian Murphy Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)Jason Mamoa Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Warner Bros.)Ryan Gosling Barbie (Warner Bros.) **Xolo Mariduea Blue Beetle (Warner Bros.)Timothe Chalamet Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) **Timothe Chalamet Wonka (Warner Bros.)Harrison Ford Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Warner Bros.)Jonah Hauer-King The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney Pictures) 2022 category winner: Brendan Fraser, The Whale (A24)
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywoods most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.