VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actress
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 14, 2023): The best supporting actress Oscar race already has the potential to be the most competitive of the four acting categories this year.
Whether Lily Gladstone ultimately decides to campaign for lead actress or supporting for her turn in Martin Scorseses Killers of the Flower Moon, a spot appears reserved for her in either category. After premiering at the Cannes Film Festival in May, Gladstone delivers an uncompromising portrayal as Mollie, an Indigenous woman whose family and tribal community are murdered by a sinister group of white men driven by their thirst for greed and power.
Indigenous representation in the Academy (and Hollywood) has been virtually nonexistent in the history of cinema. Assuming supporting actress is in the cards for her, she would be the second Indigenous actress ever nominated in the category after Jocelyne LaGarde for 1966s Hawaii.
Its a long awards season, and anything is possible on the circuit with the ongoing strikes continuing.
One of which is undoubtedly the one-two punch of America Ferrera for her work in Greta Gerwigs Barbie and the upcoming Dumb Money from Craig Gillespie, slated to premiere at TIFF. The Emmy winner of Ugly Betty has had a big year, and she could be rewarded with joining the list of 10 Latinas ever to be recognized in best supporting actress. That shortlist has resulted in only two winners in 95 years Rita Moreno and Ariana DeBose for the 1961 and 2021 versions of West Side Story (and for playing the same role).
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With the reviews and successful box office for Christopher Nolans Oppenheimer, we could finally find Emily Blunt to get her due as a nominee. Despite Golden Globe noms for The Devil Wears Prada (2005) and Mary Poppins Returns (2018) and a SAG-winning turn in A Quiet Place (2018), the British star has yet to be recognized. This could be her year.
There will be more to consider from first-half-year films such as Air (Viola Davis), The Little Mermaid (Melissa McCarthy) and Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret. (Rachel McAdams). Still, theres a buzz from unseen potential contenders such as The Color Purple (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey), if the movie is ultimately released this year, and The Holdovers (DaVine Joy Randolph), which could shake things up.
Theres also a slew of women that could factor into the discussion pending official category selections and/or awards screenings, such as Penlope Cruz (Ferrari), Julianne Moore (May December), Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon) and Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders).
Theres more to come.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23. The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:Lily Gladstone Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)Penlope Cruz Ferrari (Neon) **Emily Blunt Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)America Ferrera Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)DaVine Joy Randolph The Holdovers (Focus Features) Next in LineJulianne Moore May December (Netflix) **Danielle Brooks The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) **America Ferrera Barbie (Warner Bros.)Viola Davis Air (Amazon Studios)Isabella Rossellini La Chimera (Neon) Other Top-Tier PossibilitiesTaraji P. Henson The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) **Jodie Foster Nyad (Netflix)Vanessa Kirby Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **Annie Gonzalez Flamin Hot (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)Rhea Perlman Barbie (Warner Bros.)Sandra Hller The Zone of Interest (A24) **Rosamund Pike Saltburn (Amazon Studios)Patti LuPone Beau is Afraid (A24)Rachel McAdams Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)Melissa McCarthy The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney Pictures) Also In ContentionScarlett Johansson Asteroid City (Focus Features) **Claire Foy All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)Hong Chau Showing Up (A24)Tilda Swinton The Killer (Netflix)Audra McDonald Rustin (Netflix)Patricia Clarkson Monica (IFC Films)Celia Weston A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics)Maura Tierney The Iron Claw (A24)Niousha Noor The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)Moon Seung-ah Past Lives (A24) All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**Jodie Comer The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios) **Patti LuPone Beau is Afraid (A24)Parker Posey Beau is Afraid (A24)Amy Ryan Beau is Afraid (A24)Lily James The Iron Claw (A24)Maura Tierney The Iron Claw (A24)Moon Seung-ah Past Lives (A24)Dagmara Dominczyk Priscilla (A24)Hong Chau Showing Up (A24)Julianne Moore When You Finish Saving the World (A24)Sandra Hller The Zone of Interest (A24)Viola Davis Air (Amazon Studios)Jurnee Smollet The Burial (Amazon Studios)Rosamund Pike Saltburn (Amazon Studios)Annie Murphy Fingernails (Apple Original Films)Janae Collins Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)Tantoo Cardinal Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)Lily Gladstone Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **Cara Jade Myers Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) Vanessa Kirby Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **Scarlett Johansson Asteroid City (Focus Features)DaVine Joy Randolph The Holdovers (Focus Features)Patricia Clarkson Monica (IFC Films)Annie Gonzalez Flamin Hot (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)Rachel McAdams Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)Stephanie Hsu Joy Ride (Lionsgate)Teyonah Parris The Marvels (Marvel Studios)Issa Rae American Fiction (MGM)Tessa Thompson Creed III (MGM)Anne Hathaway Eileen (Neon) **Isabella Rossellini La Chimera (Neon)Jessica Chastain Mothers Instinct (Neon) **Anne Hathaway Mothers Instinct (Neon) **Tilda Swinton The Killer (Netflix)Myhala Herrold Leave the World Behind (Netflix)Maya Hawke Maestro (Netflix)Carey Mulligan Maestro (Netflix) **Julianne Moore May December (Netflix) **Natalie Portman May December (Netflix) **Jodie Foster Nyad (Netflix)Audra McDonald Rustin (Netflix)CCH Pounder Rustin (Netflix)Vera Farmiga Caste (No U.S. Distribution) ** Niecy Nash Caste (No U.S. Distribution) **Connie Nielsen Caste (No U.S. Distribution) **Marion Cotillard Lee (No U.S. Distribution) **Nomie Merlant Lee (No U.S. Distribution) **Andrea Riseborough Lee (No U.S. Distribution) **Lashana Lynch Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures) **Kathryn Hunter Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)Margaret Qualley Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)Claire Foy All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)America Ferrera Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)Shailene Woodley Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)Celia Weston A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics)Niousha Noor The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)Penlope Cruz Ferrari (Neon)Emily Blunt Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)Florence Pugh Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)America Ferrera Barbie (Warner Bros.)Ariana Greenblatt Barbie (Warner Bros.)Kate McKinnon Barbie (Warner Bros.)Rhea Perlman Barbie (Warner Bros.)Issa Rae Barbie (Warner Bros.)Adriana Barraza Blue Beetle (Warner Bros.)Belissa Escobedo Blue Beetle (Warner Bros.)Susan Sarandon Blue Beetle (Warner Bros.)Bruna Marquezine Blue Beetle (Warner Bros.)Halle Bailey The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) **Danielle Brooks The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) **Taraji P. Henson The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) **H.E.R. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) **Rebecca Ferguson Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) **Florence Pugh Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) **Lea Seydoux Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) **Olivia Colman Wonka (Warner Bros.)Melissa McCarthy The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney Pictures) ** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywoods most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.