Its starting to feel like COVID all over again.
Warner Bros. decision last week to delay its Dune sequel to March 2024 has set a new point of concern for the fall box office, as the WGA and SAG-AFTRAs efforts to negotiate fair contracts and bring an end to their strikes against the AMPTP continue to stall.
While 2021s Dune didnt do Barbie numbers, it still broke $400 million globally and managed to surpass $100 million domestically, despite the films simultaneous release on HBO Max. The star-studded sci-fi actioner undoubtedly would have been a contender for the top-performing theatrical films closing out 2023, but thats exactly why Warner Bros. wanted to delay it.
The star power of Timothe Chalamet and Zendaya is a lucrative pairing, but SAG actors are unable to promote AMPTP projects throughout the duration of the guilds strike.
Here are three moves VIP+ expects next, alongside three films that should be safe.
MOVES: Wonka
Like Dune, Warners Wonka is fronted by Chalamet as the notorious candy tycoon in a prequel to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. But the film isnt a shoo-in for box-office glory, given the recent history of prequels to beloved family-friendly franchises and a crowded December calendar that includes two other films from Warners. Without Chalamet on the promo side, its too risky to release the film in a typically crowded month at theaters.
STAYS: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
The Lost Kingdom is the last franchise tentpole of 2023 and the first DC film since its 2018 predecessor to bow over the December holidays, excusing the botched 2020 pandemic release of Wonder Woman 1984.
Even if the strikes havent resolved in time for Jason Momoa to promote the film, the DC brand needs a hit after shockingly low turnout for Shazam! Fury of the Gods earlier this year, not to mention the meandering June release of The Flash and the disappointing underperformance of Black Adam last year, despite Dwayne Johnsons casting. Plus, Sonys decision to move a direct sequel to Ghostbusters: Afterlife out of December means Aquaman has no major live-action competition from rival studios.
MOVES: Napoleon
Aside from Ghostbusters, Sony has already moved Marvel film Kraven the Hunter to August 2024, as the underperformance of Morbius last year was a sign that not all of the studios planned Spider-Man spinoffs can maintain the magic of Venom, especially when star Aaron Taylor-Johson isnt available for the signal boost.
Napoleon should be the next calendar shift at Sony, given its biopic casting of Joaquin Phoenix as the titular emperor. Without Phoenix to help on the promo side, the film could struggle to stand out among five other films set for the Thanksgiving window. Streaming partner Apple has yet to set its own date for the film, so itll be best to figure out a new release plan sooner than later.
STAYS: Killers of the Flower Moon
Apples other upcoming streaming film, Martin Scorseses Killers of the Flower Moon is a much safer bet. Its theatrical release through distribution partner Paramount is almost too big to fail, as the film stars Leonardo DiCaprio, whose name alone may as well be a marketing campaign. Plus, the film debuted at Cannes in May to rave reviews, so the hype has been set.
Killers is also Paramounts only major film left on the 2023 calendar after animated family sequel Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie. If Killers moves, there will be a three-month drought of the studios films in theaters until a Bob Marley biopic releases in January. While an early limited release for Killers was scrapped on Tuesday, theres little reason not to let the film be a fall standout as other films vacate their slots.
MOVES: The Bikeriders
If you were stoked to see Dune: Part Two because of Austin Butlers casting, prepare for more disappointment. 20th Centurys The Bikeriders is the actors first leading film since Elvis earned him an Oscar nom, making it imperative that he be involved in its promo cycle, as the films early December date already makes it susceptible to overshadowing from any hits coming out of Thanksgiving.
STAYS: The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
While Lionsgates prequel to mammoth franchise The Hunger Games has some notable stars like Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) and Zendayas Euphoria castmate Hunter Schafer, leading man Tom Blyth is a fresh face. Without Jennifer Lawrence attached, there isnt much point to pushing the film out of its Thanksgiving window, which is bound to lose at least one competitor by the time the films release date arrives.
Plus, if another major November release moves before Thanksgiving, it would be even more lucrative for Lionsgate to leave Hunger Games unchanged.
WILD CARD: The Marvels
A sequel to 2019s Captain Marvel, The Marvels stars Teyonah Parris and Iman Vellani alongside Brie Larsons titular hero, after both were introduced in MCU miniseries WandaVision and Ms. Marvel on Disney+, respectively.
Low turnout for the Marvel Cinematic Universes third Ant-Man earlier in the year has already spelled uncertainty for the durability of the MCU. Mays Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 did well, but that films ensemble was able to promote the movie well before SAG-AFTRA announced its strike.
Releasing the film without the trios promotion would not only hurt The Marvels but could stifle ongoing efforts to sustain interest in MCU series streaming on Disney+, especially after lackluster reception to Secret Invasion over the summer. That series used generative AI to create its own intro sequence, making the MCU a focal point for the strikes.