Yes, SAG-AFTRA talks with the AMPTP are ongoing, but theres still an awards season to track.
Honoring the best achievements in film and television, the guilds highest honor has become a critical bellwether during the awards season. The union has made it clear submitting for awards consideration is not considered a “promotion” under the current strike order.
Even though the SAG nominating committee was formed before the strike began in July, SAG-AFTRA has paused all FYC and marketing materials, even if the films have an interim agreement. All e-blasts and screeners for consideration will remain on pause until further notice.
That wont prohibit some of the years biggest contenders, such as Christopher Nolans Oppenheimer or Greta Gerwigs Barbie from dominating. We fully expect to see multiple noms coming for those movies. Theres always room for surprise, which you can see via the predictions below.
One is a possible mention of Florence Pugh for her turn as a Community Party/love interest. While were not projecting her replacing her co-star Emily Blunt. On the contrary, a mention of her would mimic double-dips seen at the SAG Awards previously, such as Nicole Kidman for Bombshell (2019). It wouldnt propel her into the supporting actress race, but that category is currently wide open and could produce a few more surprises.
Your Oscar predictions, along with the other televised ceremonies Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA have to tell a story. Do we have another Michael Shannon (99 Homes) or Maria Bello (The Cooler) contender who lands everything but misses out on Oscar by the end? Is there a smaller film that makes noise and has everyone scratching their heads (i.e., Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back or Captain Fantastic in cast ensemble)? Either way, the race is always fluid, and this page will be updated weekly, along with the others.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA FEBRUARY 26: (L-R) Jamie Lee Curtis, Jenny Slate, Stephanie Hsu, James Hong, Ke Huy Quan, Andy Le, Brian Le and Harry Shum Jr. accept the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture award for Everything Everywhere All at Once The SAG Awards have existed since 1995, quickly establishing itself where an actor or actress would be recognized by their peers due to its large crossover with AMPAS voters. Only three actors have won an acting Oscar in that timeframe without receiving a SAG nom: Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock (2000), Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained (2012) and Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk (2018). When it comes to Oscar best picture winners, you can look to Braveheart (1995), The Shape of Water (2017), Green Book (2018) and Nomadland (2020) as the four movies to do so without receiving a cast ensemble mention.
The 30th annual Screen Actors Guild Awards ceremonywill stream live globally on Netflix for the first timethis year as part of their multi-year deal.
The television categories will be added in the coming weeks.
Read:Variety’sAwards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcomingOscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
(Updated Nov. 7, 2023)
Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection And The Predicted Nominees Are: Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, America Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Rhea Perlman, Will FerrellOppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek, Kenneth BranaghAmerican Fiction (MGM)
Jeffrey Wright, Tracee Ellis Ross, Sterling K. Brown, Issa Rae, John Ortiz, Erika Alexander, Adam Brody, Leslie Uggams, Myra Lucretia TaylorAir (Amazon MGM Studios)
Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Jason Bateman, Chris Messina, Matthew Maher, Marlon Wayans, Jay Mohr, Julius Tennon, Chris Tucker, Viola DavisKillers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone, Robert DeNiro, Jesse Plemons, Tantoo Cardinal, John Lithgow, Brendan Fraser, Cara Jade Myers, JaNae Collins, Jillian Dion, Jason Isbell, William Belleau Also in contention: The Color Purple (Warner Bros.); The Holdovers (Focus Features); Maestro (Netflix); May December (Netflix); Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Last five winners: Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24); CODA (Apple Original Films); The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix); Parasite (Neon); Black Panther (Marvel Studios)
Oscars category page with rankings
Male Actor in a Leading Role
Image Credit: Netflix And The Predicted Nominees Are: Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein Maestro (Netflix)Jeffrey Wright as Thelonious Monk Ellison American Fiction (MGM)Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)Leonardo DiCaprio as Ernest Burkhart Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)Colman Domingo as Bayard Rustin Rustin (Netflix) Also in contention: Matt Damon, Air (Amazon MGM Studios); Adam Driver, Ferrari (Neon); Jamie Foxx, The Burial (Amazon MGM Studios); Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (Focus Features); Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
Last five winners: Brendan Fraser, The Whale (A24); Will Smith, King Richard (Warner Bros.); Chadwick Boseman, Ma Raineys Black Bottom (Netflix); Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (Warner Bros.); Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (Paramount Pictures)
Oscars category page with rankings
Female Actor in a Leading Role
Image Credit: Poor Things (Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures) And The Predicted Nominees Are: Emma Stone as Bella Baxter Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)Lily Gladstone as Mollie Kyle Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)Margot Robbie as Barbie Barbie (Warner Bros.)Carey Mulligan as Felicia Montealegre Maestro (Netflix)Natalie Portman as Elizabeth Berry May December (Netflix) Also in contention: Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (Warner Bros.); Annette Bening, Nyad (Netflix); Jessie Buckley, Fingernails (Apple Original Films); Aunjanue Ellis as Isabel Wilkerson Origin (Neon); Greta Lee, Past Lives (A24)
Last five winners: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24); Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures); Viola Davis, Ma Raineys Black Bottom (Netflix); Renée Zellweger, Judy (LD Entertainment and Roadside Attractions); Glenn Close, The Wife (Sony Pictures Classics)
Oscars category page with rankings
Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection And The Predicted Nominees Are: Ryan Gosling as Ken Barbie (Warner Bros.)Robert Downey Jr. as Lewis Strauss Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)Robert De Niro as William King Hale Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)Mark Ruffalo as Duncan Wedderburn Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)Charles Melton as Joe Yoo May December (Netflix) Also in contention: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (MGM); Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures); Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (IFC Films); Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures); Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (Focus Features)
Last five winners: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24); Troy Kotsur, CODA (Apple Original Films); Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.); Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time inHollywood (Sony Pictures); Mahershala Ali, Green Book (Universal Pictures)
Oscars category page with rankings
Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: Focus Features And The Predicted Nominees Are: DaVine Joy Randolph as Mary Lamb The Holdovers (Focus Features)Emily Blunt as Katherine Kitty Oppenheimer Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)Julianne Moore as Gracie Atherton-Yoo May December (Netflix)Rosamund Pike as Elsbeth, Lady Catton Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios)Florence Pugh as Jean Tatlock Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) Also in contention: Juliette Binoche, “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studios); Penélope Cruz, “Ferrari” (Neon); Viola Davis, Air (Amazon MGM Studios); America Ferrera, “Barbie” (Warner Bros.); Jodie Foster, “Nyad” (Netflix)
Last five winners: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24); Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (20th Century Studios); Yuh-jung Youn, Minari (A24); Laura Dern, Marriage Story (Netflix); Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (Paramount Pictures)
Oscars category page with rankings
Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures and Skydance And The Predicted Nominees Are: “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)“The Creator” (20th Century Studios)“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)“Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)“Ferrari” (Neon) Also in contention: “Barbie” (Warner Bros.); “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.); “Dungeons Dragons” (Paramount Pictures); “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures); Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Last five winners: Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures); No Time to Die (MGM/United Artists Releasing); Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros.); Avengers: Endgame (Marvel Studios); Black Panther (Marvel Studios)