For 15 years, Disneys Marvel Cinematic Universe has delivered an unprecedented string of blockbusters 32 in a row to cement its place as the gold standard for franchise fare.
Not all of the comic book movies were created equal (The Incredible Hulk and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, were looking at you), but no other Hollywood property has come close to its level of consistency. Even the less-embraced installments became box-office winners, enabling the companys movies to earn a combined $30 billion globally. Any industry-wide fears of superhero fatigue could be quashed and quelled each time a new MCU adventure graced the big screen.
So its been unsettling to find out the Avengers are Earth-bound, after all. The Marvels, the 33rd installment in the MCU and the sequel to 2019s billion-dollar behemoth Captain Marvel, cratered with $47 million in North America and $63 million internationally the lowest opening weekend in the franchises history. Before this weekend, the worst debut belonged to 2008s The Incredible Hulk ($55.4 million, not adjusted for inflation), which premiered at the dawn of the MCU.
Marvel has been showing recent signs of wear and tear, but Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Eternals werent labeled as disappointments until the end of their theatrical runs. The Marvels is concerning because its the rare misfire out of the gate for the MCU. Even in pandemic times, Black Widow ($80 million while landing simultaneously on Disney+), Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million) landed far better starts even as the world grappled with a global health crisis.
A disastrous liftoff is problematic because Marvel movies have become increasingly front-loaded, meaning these tentpoles tend to earn the bulk of their money in the first weekend of release. Fans want to be among the first to see them to avoid plot twists, cameos and other spoilers. With all the bad buzz, the $220 million-budgeted The Marvels may struggle to rebound as the holiday season picks up with the openings of The Hunger Games prequel The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Disneys animated Wish.
The Marvels wasnt expected to go higher, further or faster at the box office than its predecessor, which introduced Brie Larsons Lycra-clad hero Captain Marvel and collected $153 million in its opening weekend. Ticket sales for Captain Marvel were stratospheric in part because it was programmed as a must-see chapter in between two of the biggest movies of all time, 2018s Avengers: Infinity War and 2019s Avengers: Endgame. During a historic year for Disney, Captain Marvel became one of seven movies to gross $1 billion worldwide.
So what happened since then?
It didnt help that actors like Larson and her co-stars Teyonah Parris (as Monica Rambeau) and Iman Vellani (as Ms. Marvel) were unable to promote the film due to the SAG strike (whichfinally ended on Friday). But analysts believe that may have cut off only a few million in initial ticket sales. It doesnt explain a $100 million difference from the first film.
Having Brie Larson and the rest of the cast on the promotional circuit could have helped boost the opening to some degree, Shawn Robbins, the chief analyst at Boxoffice Pro. But it likely wouldnt have offset the other significant hurdles both inherent to and outside of the film itself.
It probably has more to do with Disneys COVID-era strategy of quantity over quality. For the past decade and a half, Marvel has been synonymous with excellence. The brands track record was strong enough that heroes, like the Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor and Black Panther, didnt need to be household names to entice audiences and shatter box office records.
Captain Marvel arrived in theaters in an era when the MCU couldnt miss at the box office. But in the time since, Disney has inundated viewers with countless spinoffs, sequels and TV series on both the big and small screen. Since the launch of Disney+ in 2019, Marvel has released nine television shows (with six to nine episodes each) in addition to the regular pace of three to four theatrical movies a year. Forget the casual viewer, its a relentless pace for devoted comic book buffs. And even they have complained about shoddy visual effects, tangled storylines and too many characters to count.
Audiences have higher and higher expectations, Robbins adds. Even with factors outside Marvels control, a mixed reception toward several of their most highly touted films in the last few years and an often excessive volume of Disney+ series has diminished the level of urgency audiences once felt for the franchise.
Does this mean that superhero fatigue has officially plagued the globe? Not yet. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($845 million in total) and Sonys Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse ($690 million) were hits over the summer, and 2022s The Batman ($770 million) and 2021s Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.9 billion) were saviors the two prior years. But its been clear for the first time that fans arent necessarily going to reliably show up no matter whats (or whos) on screen. It points to a future where Marvel can no longer spotlight any ol superhero and expect a blockbuster smash in return.
Disney, too, has proven its mortality after a remarkable stretch of sheer box-office domination. The Marvels joins a list of underperforming big-budget tentpoles in 2023, such as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Haunted Mansion remake, The Little Mermaid and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. During a recent earnings call, Disneys CEO Bob Iger alluded to the sparkle thats been missing at the Magic Kingdom.
At the time the pandemic hit, we were leaning into a huge increase in how much we were making, said Iger, who retired in 2020 and returned at the end of 2021. Ive always felt that quantity can be actually a negative when it comes to quality. And I think thats exactly what happened. We lost some focus.
Expect Disney to reduce its output as it figures out its strategy for Earths Mightiest Heroes. Earlier this week, the company postponed several MCU movies, Captain America: A Brave New World, Thunderbolts and Blade among them, to 2025 because of strike-related production delays. It leaves Deadpool 3 as the lone MCU film on the calendar for 2024.
Disney realizes they need to pivot and tweak their most prominent IP, says Jeff Bock, a senior analyst with Exhibitor Relations. Its not a reboot, but a rebuild.
In the meantime, can the Merc with a Mouth restore some of that Marvel magic?