VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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UPDATED: April 20, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
The Last of Us (HBO) HBO Weekly Commentary: Still no decision on where Brian Cox will campaign for Succession but based on conversations with industry insiders, a lead drama actor run is likely in the cards, despite three (confirmed) episode showings. Essentially, the Scottish actor would become the Emmy version of Anthony Hopkins, who won the best actor Oscar with very limited screen time for The Silence of the Lambs (1991).
There is precedent. Christopher Lloyd won lead drama actor for a single episode of Road to Avonlea back in 1992.
Coxs acclaimed performance as Logan Roy has received multiple accolades for the HBO drama, including those two Emmy nominations for the second and third seasons for lead actor (drama). He was nominated alongside his co-star Jeremy Strong, who plays his eldest son Kendall, and who won for the shows second season.
Emmy rules for 2023 state, Only performers appearing in less than 50% of the eligible episodes can submit in the guest performer categories. Assuming Cox doesnt appear in any of the remaining episodes, the 76-year-old Scottish actor will have three options available to choose from. He can stay in lead actor (drama) with Strong, switch to supporting actor (drama) alongside Kieran Culkin, Matthew Macfadyen and Alan Ruck, or vie for guest actor (drama) recognition, facing likely contenders Arian Moayed and Alexander Skarsgrd (who might qualify for supporting this time around). If Cox appears in any of the two further episodes (in a flashback, for instance), he would no longer qualify for guest.
And then theres Pedro Pascal, with three wildly different performances available for the Television Academy to consider this year. He has his guest comedy actor bid for hosting NBCs Saturday Night Live and two spectacular turns in the science fiction genre The Mandalorian from Disney+ and The Last of Us from HBO.
Pascal and the rest of the field are facing Saul Goodman, portrayed by Bob Odenkirk, for the final season of Better Call Saul that aired last summer. While fair to point out the shows 46 series noms, none of which have resulted in a win, is the clear hurdle for the veteran actor to overcome. Still, like former final season winners across the Emmy spectrum, such as Jon Hamm (Mad Men), you can never be sure how sentimental the Emmys will get for a respected actor.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:Jeff Bridges The Old Man (FX)Brian Cox Succession (HBO) **Jeremy Strong Succession (HBO) **Bob Odenkirk Better Call Saul (AMC)Pedro Pascal The Last of Us (HBO)Diego Luna Andor (Disney+) Next in LinePaddy Considine House of the Dragon (HBO)Harrison Ford 1923 (Paramount+)Kevin Costner Yellowstone (Paramount Network)Kieran Culkin Succession (HBO) ** Other Top-Tier PossibilitiesMatthew Rhys Perry Mason (HBO)Dominic West The Crown (Netflix)Bryan Cranston Your Honor (Showtime)Antony Starr The Boys (Prime Video)Forest Whitaker Godfather of Harlem (MGM+)Jeremy Renner Mayor of Kingstown (Paramount+)Pedro Pascal The Mandalorian (Disney+)Joshua Jackson Fatal Attraction (Paramount+)Gary Oldman Slow Horses (Apple TV+)Karl Urban The Boys (Prime Video) All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**Milo Ventimiglia The Company You Keep (ABC)Freddie Highmore The Good Doctor (ABC)David Giuntoli A Million Little Things (ABC)Romany Malco A Million Little Things (ABC)Bob Odenkirk Better Call Saul (AMC)Jacob Anderson Anne Rices Interview with the Vampire (AMC)Colin OBrien Dear Edward (Apple TV+)Michiel Huisman Echo 3 (Apple TV+)Luke Evans Echo 3 (Apple TV+)Billy Crudup Hello Tomorrow! (Apple TV+)Vincent Cassel Liaison (Apple TV+)Jason Mamoa See (Apple TV+)Gary Oldman Slow Horses (Apple TV+)Diego Luna Andor (Disney+)Pedro Pascal The Mandalorian (Disney+)Warwick Davis Willow (Disney+)Jeff Bridges The Old Man (FX)Damson Idris Snowfall (FX)Paddy Considine House of the Dragon (HBO)Abel Tesfaye The Idol (HBO)Pedro Pascal The Last of Us (HBO)Matthew Rhys Perry Mason (HBO)Jeremy Strong Succession (HBO) **Brian Cox Succession (HBO) **Kieran Culkin Succession (HBO) **Ansel Elgort Tokyo Vice (HBO)Aaron Paul Westworld (HBO)Harrold Perrineau From (MGM+)Forest Whitaker Godfather of Harlem (MGM+)Taylor Kinney Chicago Fire (NBC)Jason Beghe Chicago P.D. (NBC)Zeeko Zaki FBI (NBC)Luke Kleintank FBI: International (NBC)Anthony Anderson Law Order (NBC)Hugh Dancy Law Order (NBC)Ryan Eggold New Amsterdam (NBC)Raymond Lee Quantum Leap (NBC)Dominic West The Crown (Netflix)Gabriel Basso The Night Agent (Netflix)Chase Stokes Outer Banks (Netflix)Corey Mylchreest Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story (Netflix)Tom Sturridge The Sandman (Netflix)Elliot Page The Umbrella Academy (Netflix)Penn Badgley You (Netflix)Harrison Ford 1923 (Paramount+)Mike Colter Evil (Paramount+)Joshua Jackson Fatal Attraction (Paramount+)Jeremy Renner Mayor of Kingstown (Paramount+)Kiefer Sutherland Rabbit Hole (Paramount+)Patrick Stewart Star Trek: Picard (Paramount+)Anson Mount Star Trek: Strange New Worlds (Paramount+)Kevin Costner Yellowstone (Paramount Network)Jobari Banks Bel-Air (Peacock)Jake McDorman Mrs. Davis (Peacock)Jack Quaid The Boys (Prime Video)Antony Starr The Boys (Prime Video)Karl Urban The Boys (Prime Video)Richard Madden Citadel (Prime Video)Logan Lerman Hunters (Prime Video)Al Pacino Hunters (Prime Video)Richard Aramayo The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power (Prime Video)Chris Pratt The Terminal List (Prime Video)Bryan Cranston Your Honor (Showtime)Nicholas Denton Dangerous Liaisons (Starz)Nicco Annan P Valley (Starz)Michael Rainey Jr. Power Book II: Ghost (Starz)Zackary Arthur Chucky (Syfy) ** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game (Netflix)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | VARIETY SKETCH, SERIES, SPECIALS |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories GUEST ACTING, VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.